Stocks Discussed: TIP, CAKE, ATML, EWY, and CAT
From a US market perspective, the facts haven't changed, so i haven't.
The MCM Trade and MCM Trend remain negative.
MCM Trades/Fades
1. sold all my Treasury Protected Inflation (TIP) this afternoon, $106.64... since the US markets closed on what we Canadian's call 'Boxing Day' (December 26th), the TIP protection i bought has been +2.4%, while the SP500 has been down approximately -3%. This trade will be recorded in what some of the mathematically inclined call "alpha space". Oil opened this morning at $97, Gold was testing $850/oz, and i'm finally hearing every talking head on CNBC talk about reality (ie inflation)... as consensus rolls in, i roll out. Nice macro win for us with this call. We'll buy TIP back on down days.
2. bought another 1/3 of Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) this morning, $21.90... this lowers my cost basis to $22.60 on 2/3 of a full position. If i'm not below Peltz's cost basis, i'm getting very close. Bear Stearns downgraded the restaurant group and Wedbush Morgan's analyst Brian Moore said Peltz "may not be the catalyst we initially thought"??Unfortunately for Mr Moore, he works for a momentum sales growth research shop who wouldnt understand a value investor's catalyst if we stamped it on his forehead.This assures me that Moore has plenty of people staring at the tree of near term monthly sales and earnings while Peltz takes this free cash flow machine to his own forest.
3. covered all my Atmel (ATML) today, $4.28... i've said it a lot, but i'll keep saying it - gains on the short side are meant to be taken. Nothing like starting 2008 with some locked in gains while the masses scramble to "hedge". Here's another +6.8% win.
4. covering all my South Korea ETF (EWY) today into the close, $61.70... Asian ETF's are getting hammered today, and this one more than most, trading down a solid -4.7% as i type this note. As consensus comes to agree with me that Asian Industrial Production Growth will slow in 2008 (this morning, Singapore printed the worst quarterly GDP figure for Q4 that we've seen in almost 5 yrs), South Korea remains MCM's best fundamental country short in Asia. That said, you have to lock these down when hedge funds are stepping on them frantically so that they can get themselves "short exposure". Hedge funds should consider being hedged, before the maket moves down.
5. covering all my Caterpillar (CAT) today into the close, $70.23... the big levered CAT is trading horribly to kick off 2008, down over 3%. Technically, this looks like a good spot to cover, and you know i like getting paid on market down days. Always good to build up some positive performance cushion early in the new season. Re-short on up days. This is one of the surrogate shorts i'm using to make $ off of the MCM Theme of the "Its Global this time" Industrial Production Growth story slowing in 2008. The CAT looks ill. ____________________________________________________________
MCM Themes
Fed Centric/Fed Cut bull case is the Tree; Access to Credit/Capital the Forest... -Nov07' Rebalancing to the Left; look for Socialism to regain her footing, Globally, in 2008... -Nov07'
Bonds, Banks, and Bailouts; Blue Magic is bad, in the end... -Nov07'
'US$ Bottoming is a Process, not a Point' -November07'
'YouTubing America' - Transparency/Accountability will transform Washington to Wall Street -Dec08 '
Paulson & the Fed Centrists want you to call 1-888-995-HOPE' -Dec08
'The Double Edged Fear Sword: Fear is now the dominating market factor, not Credit - Fear for Fed Centric Bulls & Consensus Bears alike'-Dec08'
'Global Basic Food Consumption Growth will takeover from the consensus "Its Global this time" Industrial Production Growth story in 2008'-Dec08'
'Litigations & Redemptions' - The Tide has rolled out on the Levered Long Community'-Dec08' _________________________________________________
Closed Out Positions (realized gains in green, losses in red)
Long
EWH (bought 20.70, sold 21.35) = +3.1%
BBY (bought 46.60, sold 49.40) = +6.0%
MLHR (bought 26.70 , sold 27.65) = +3.9%
HOG (bought 45.10 , sold 49.96 ) = +10.8%
EAT (bought 21.54, sold 22.44) = +4.2%
EBAY (bought 31.70, sold $34.91) = +10.1%
TOL (bought 22.30 , sold 21.51) = - 3.5%
EWH (bought $22.73. sold 21.98) = - 3.2%
COST (bought 69.67, sold 68.74) = -1.3%
RSX (bought 49.32, sold 51.36) = +4.0%
HOG (bought 48.20, sold 46.55 ) = -3.4%
KGC (bought 17.33, sold 17.74) = +2.4%
GLD (bought 78.60, sold 82.69) = +5.2%
TIP (bought 104.68, sold 106.64) = +1.9%
Short
RIMM (short 113.90, cover 111.60) = +1.0%
DAVE (short 14.24 , cover 13.60) = +4.5%
DLTR (short 28.51, cover 26.47) = +7.2%
HTZ (short 19.29, cover 18.58 ) = +3.7%
TGT (short 57.93 , cover 59.04 ) = - 1.9%
SPG (short 90.60, cover 94.10) = -3.9%
LIZ (short 25.58, cover 24.19) = +5.4%
BKC (short 26.74 , cover 25.80 ) = +3.5%
EWP (short 68.03, cover 67.47) = -0.82%
HAS (short 27.51 , cover 26.35) = +4.2%
DLTR (short 29.52, cover 28.18 ) = +4.5%
CPB (short 35.62, cover 36.76) = -3.2%
IPAR (short 20.48 , cover 16.47) = +19.6%
TLF (short 4.04, cover 3.27) = +19.1%
AN (short 16.99, cover 16.70) = +1.7%
WYN (short 28.19, cover 27.39) = +2.8%
MCD (short 63.35, cover 61.22) = +3.4%
DLTR (short 29.46, cover 27.66 ) = +6.1%
MA (short 219.44, cover 212.72) = +3.1%
SHLD (short $112.51, cover 104.37 ) = +7.2%
BKC (short $28.02, cover 27.70 ) = +1.3%
EWW (short 59.40, cover 55.83) = +6.0%
GE (short 37.60, cover 36.48 ) = +3.0%
JBX (short 28.49, cover 25.74) = +9.6%
BAGL (short $20.15, cover 16.43) = +18.5%
KSS (short 52.64, cover 45.37) = +13.8%
TLF (short 3.25, cover 3.05) = +6.2%
TGT (short 55.23, cover 49.99) = +9.5%
RIMM (short 103.53, cover 116.98) = - 12.99%
HAS (short 27.15, cover 25.80) = +4.97%
BONT (short 12.26, cover 9.49) = +22.6%
WYN (short 25.01, cover 23.31) = +6.8%
NKE (short 67.01 , cover 64.18) = +4.2%
ATML (short 4.59, cover 4.28) = +6.8%
EWY (short 66.06, cover 61.70) = +6.6%
CAT (short 71.49, cover 70.23) = +1.8%
MCM Disclosure/Disclaimer: This email and/or blog is for a select group of my friends, and represents a beta test of an idea that i am incubating. My email and blog writings are prepared without regard to the unique circumstances or goals of those who read them. They do not provide investment advice that should be specifically acted upon without considering the all encompassing range of investment information and/or considerations available in the public domain and/or without considering all appropriate professional advice. This should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security or to participate in any investment strategy. The information and editorials in these writings are not necessarily complete or perfectly accurate and are not guaranteed by Keith McCullough or MCM. This information is protected from disclosure and constitute opinions only as of the date of their issuance. Opinions are subject to change without notice, and Keith McCullough or MCM do not accept any liability whatsoever for any losses estimated to be attributable to any use of this content. Keith McCullough and/or McCullough Capital Management, Inc. likely owns and/or is currently trading in all of the securities cited in these emails and/or blogs.
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